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Can the Scottish Greens win Edinburgh Central?

Here are three (now four!) big reasons that make a win for us likely.

The Scottish Greens – and our candidate, Lorna Slater – are in a strong position to win the Edinburgh Central constituency in the 2026 Holyrood election, a historic first-ever constituency win for the party. But what makes a win likely?

1) Edinburgh Central has had significant boundary changes

Since the last Holyrood election in 2021, the boundaries of Edinburgh Central have been altered, taking in many Green-voting areas around the Southside and Morningside. As Ballot Box Scotland points out, “this creates the strongest Holyrood seat for the Greens in history.”

An infographic titled: "Note: Edinburgh Central has significantly redrawn boundaries!" The left column shows the constituency boundaries overlaid on the 2022 local election results per polling district (as this is the most granular election data available in Scotland. The 2021 version is explained as follows: "The previous version of Edinburgh Central includes a substantial area to the north and west of the city centre that was strong for the Conservatives and Lib Dems...." The 2026 version then reads "... But the new version has moved southwards, incorporating strong Labour and Green areas that in 2021 were part of the Labour-won Edinburgh Southern." The right column shows the notional 2021 results on the new boundaries. The constituency vote is 41.2% SNP, 30.6% Labour, 16.7% Conservative, and 6.8% Green. The accompanying text reads: "This significantly changes the situation. The new version in 2021 terms is the second-easiest seat in Scotland for Labour to gain from the SNP, at 10.5% behind (note: Green share here is only partial)..." The regional vote is 29.1% SNP, 24.2% Green, 20.9% Labour and 17.0% Conservative. The accompanying text reads: "... It also creates the strongest Holyrood seat for the Greens in history, placing just 5% behind the SNP on the list vote in 2021; they also won the most votes in this area in the 2022 local elections." The bottom of the graphic concludes: "This constituency therefore cannot accurately be described as a "Two-Horse Race" between the SNP and Conservatives. The latter's collapse in vote share had already taken them out of the race; the boundary changes euthanised the horse."

2) Greens won the most votes in the 2022 Council elections in Edinburgh Central

In 2022, the Greens came first in the polling districts that make up the new Edinburgh Central constituency, as the polling district data shows below. (The results of each polling district in Edinburgh is available on the Ballot Box Scotland website.)

WardPolling districtsSNPConLabGreenLDOtherTotal
City CentreAll2,1661,8961,2971,7551,3414128,867
Sighthill/GorgieSWC07F, SWC07E, SWC07D1,2773428888491763773,909
Fountainbridge/CraiglockhartSWC09D, SWS09C, SWS09B9184558261,105150423,496
MorningsideSS10G, SWC10D, SS10C, SS10B, SWS10A1,0418871,5581,907890906,373
Southside/NewingtonEC15A, EC15C, SS15D, SS15F1,2429611,4271,70680906,145
Total6,6444,5415,9967,3223,36692128,790
%23.115.820.825.411.73.2

Putting this data into a graph shows the following result:

Since the 2022 elections, the Greens’ polling has surged nationally, making a historic Green win even more likely. A recent poll by IPSOS has the Greens becoming the second-biggest party after the SNP, indicating a significant increase in our vote compared to last time.

3) Several projections see the Greens winning the seat

Several polling experts see the Greens as favourites to win Edinburgh Central.

Ballot Box Scotland projections show this as a race between the Greens and Labour (this projection is from 12 April 2026):

Edinburgh Central Region: Edinburgh and Lothians East Projected winner: GRN Projected Runner-Up: LAB Projected Majority: 7.6% Projected Constituency Vote: SNP - 23.1% Conservative 6.4% Labour 23.6% Lib Dem 3.4% Green 31.2% Reform UK 10.5%

The Glasgow University polling expert, Mark McGeoghegan, projects the Greens to win Edinburgh Central using his model.

Updated Scotland poll tracker, accounting for today's @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll.SNP 2 short of a majority.Pro-independence majority of 23.Seats (+/- 2021)SNP: 63 (-1)Lab: 18 (-4)Ref: 16 (+16)Grn: 13 (+5)LD: 10 (+6)Con: 9 (-22)1/2

— Mark McGeoghegan (@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social) 2026-04-09T12:52:47.111Z

As does the Devolved Elections Projection’s ‘Nowcast’ on 12 April 2026:

Edinburgh Central Largest party: Greens Projected vote shares: Greens 28.6% SNP 26.1% Labour 23.0% Conservatives 8.0% Reform 8.0%

4) Lorna is now the bookies favourite!

As of 14 April, Ladbrokes have Lorna as favourite to win Edinburgh Central.

But of course – these are just predictions. To make it a reality, we need people to get involved in the campaign! This is a people-powered campaign against better-funded parties and their rich donors. Every door knocked, every leaflet delivered, counts.

Contact volunteers.edin@scottishgreens.org.uk to get involved.